The Basque Country's historical transport problems can be summarised as follows:
- A particularly high dominance of road transport that increases over time, due to a major flow of trucks in transit and intense traffic in some areas. Factors that generate high congestion. Rail is a residual mode for freight: its market share is under 2%.
- Lack of rail infrastructure and precariousness for most existing infrastructures to meet daily trip demands, with the exception of the Bilbao Metro and to a much lesser extent, sections of the Euskotren, RENFE and FEVE local railway. Regional and long distance trains are practically nonexistent. Precarious bus services, connecting capitals and serving some metropolitan areas.
The only response from Basque Government institutions (BGI) is to promote new infrastructures. This policy is showered with a wide range of positive factors: boosting competitiveness and economic development, strengthening the territorial and social backbone and cohesion, guaranteeing uniform accessibility throughout the territory, assuring sustainability for the transport system, re-establishing balance between the different modes of transport and, finally, managing to insert the Basque system appropriately within the international context. However the fact that Local Governments have many more financial resources than the Basque Government (BG) has determined, on the one hand, a particularly intense push towards road construction that monopolises and maintains the precarious situation of the inland rail network (falling with the BG remit).
According to the BGI, the Basque Country requires a High Speed (HS) rail structure between the three capitals that would also "connect us to Europe". The foral territories (Gipuzkoa, Bizkaia and Araba) significantly lack transport infrastructures. Bizkaia needs a new ring road for Bilbao (known as the Supersur), further widening of the Txoriherri corridor, etc.; Gipuzkoa needs a new port (external) in Pasaia, airport expansion at Hondarribia, San Sebastian needs a new ring road and maybe a Metro, etc.: Araba needs a major logistics centre (Araba Sur), plus it is considered essential (along with Gipuzkoa) to finish the Eibar-Vitoria motorway and reactivate its ailing airport, etc.
There is little foundation to the defence that the proliferation of infrastructures makes a major contribution to economic growth. There is wide consensus among transport economists that, once industrialised countries have attained normal levels of infrastructures, further construction can even have negative effects on the economy. The British SACTRA report (1999) states that there is a transport threshold beyond which greater mobility has harmful effects on economic activity and this threshold has been reached by industrialised countries. The Eddington report (2006) confirms these conclusions: "historically, new connections have played a central role in the period of rapid economic growth in many economies, but mature economies (...) must focus their policy and investment on improving productivity for existing transport networks." The French State Audit Office (Cour de Comptes, 2006) criticises that socio-economic profitability studies aiming to justify building major infrastructures are manipulated, exaggerating the advantages and playing down the disadvantages and it agrees with previous studies that "greater priority should be given to spending on renovating existing equipment over development investments."
Given the small size of the Basque Country, the BGIs cannot allege, as in the EU and in Spain, that the high speed rail link would contribute to modal rebalancing because it would be getting passengers off planes; another line of defence is required, proposing that it becomes a mixed line, which would alleviate congestion by taking passengers and freight off the roads, in addition to reducing CO2 emissions. However, mixed lines do not exist anywhere in the world except in Germany (on just one HS line and after preparing it for this use with gentle slopes, large car parks and convoys that travel at 140 km/h, although it is only used for light freight with a high market value) and the Euromed (due to the physical impossibility of building a new line along the Mediterranean coast, incurring high maintenance costs). In this case, the flow of freight is very low because when the line was renovated, specific needs for freight transport were not taken into account, as shown in the Davignon Report (2008), by the European coordinator for cross-Pyrenean transport: the lines are too steep and the "scarce number of overtaking places and car parks will not make freight transport easy." A line that exclusively joins the three capitals cannot contribute to territorial cohesion in the Basque Country. The "connection with Europe" demagogy is impossible, because the French government does not want to bring the high speed line as far as the border. Finally, the HS train line does not reduce CO2 emissions, but increases them. This was stated in a recent report by the Swedish rail administration and it is the logical consequence that HS trains double the energy consumption of a conventional train.
The BG (2007) argues that the Basque Y would leave the conventional network free for freight: "In addition to the very possibility of using the Y for freight, its presence can free up the tracks that are now used for the long distance lines and many of the regional trains." However he adds that this network is inadequate for transporting freight: "Freight traffic on the Iberian gauge network has been practically stagnant over the last few years. This is mainly due to the existence of a series of critical areas that limit capacity." The critical areas are the Orduña pass and the Alsasua-Zumarraga connection. Another aggravating factor in the Basque country is that typical freight from Basque industry and freight coming through the port of Bilbao is very heavy. RENFE has ruled out mixed lines, which means that the trucks travelling through and heading north would have to offload their loads on to the Basque Y when they get to Vitoria.
It is also absurd to try and eliminate road congestion by building more roads. Nobody has managed this, nor will they ever do so, because, as stated by the EU White Paper on transport (2000), when a new road infrastructure is created, this activates a latent demand which ends up saturating it.
Oil ceiling scenario
Oil contributes 98% of the energy consumed by transport, and 74% of the aforementioned quantity is consumed by road transport. This ratio is similar in the Basque Country although with a historical tendency to get stronger: annual increase over 3% on average in the period 1996-2007.
There is overwhelming evidence that oil is starting to run out. This is proved by the stagnation of the oil supply produced in the period 2005-2008, which led to the price of oil reaching 147$/barrel in June 2008. Afterwards, the crisis (magnified by escalation) reduced the demand and the price of the barrel fell to 32 $/b. However, consensus is growing among experts that the oil ceiling (the maximum extraction capacity) was reached in 2008. This would explain why the price of oil is recovering (standing at around 80 $/b at the start of November 2009) although the world economy is taking longer to recover. So when the economy starts to get back on its feet, the barrel will go beyond the maximum price for 2008, and the world economy will fall into a deep and long economic crisis. Fatif Birol (2007), chief economist for the International Energy Agency (IEA), states that "if we don't do something quickly, and courageously (...) the wheels are going to fall off our energy system. This is the message we wish to give." For this reason, the IEA is asking governments to find an alternative to oil in a hurry. Even the European Commission has ended up accepting the problem. In its communication entitled "A sustainable future for transport", it includes a section on "Growing scarcity of fossil fuels" (COM–2009– 279/4).
As a consequence of the oil ceiling, there are going to be many changes in the transport system, although their dimensions are difficult to evaluate. However it is clear that many people will have to give up their daily car trips and will demand efficient collective transport instead. Within this context, there is no sense in continuing to build roads, but it would be logical to modernise and extend rail lines and improve bus services. In order to carry out this task, Local Governments should work with the BG, following the precedent of the Bilbao Metro.
Air transport will be drastically reduced, and the current rate of major airline fusions will be strengthened. The vast majority of low cost airlines will disappear because the high costs of fuel leave little margin to reduce other costs. Many small airports will have to close because they will lose more money than at present. Out of the 47 Spanish airports managed by the State, only Madrid, Barcelona, Malaga, Palma and Alicante are profitable. Hondarribia and Vitoria should be closed.
In freight transport, processes involving offloading from road to rail and boat will intensify on long trips. Demand for rail transport will hit the roof, if there is a minimally acceptable infrastructure and so the Basque Y should be reconverted to give priority to freight, regardless of its phase of construction when the energy crisis hits. Davignon is convinced that the two cross-Pyrenean rail corridors will be reconverted to give priority to freight: "I am even more convinced (than at the start of his mandate) that the purpose of these infrastructures should evolve essentially towards freight transport"(Davignon, 2008: 12).
Maritime freight traffic will be reinforced, but it does not make sense to build an external port at Pasaia, taking into account the economic depression that the energy crisis will cause and that the port of Bilbao is generally too large for its current load.
Nevertheless, this is not just a matter of adapting different modes to new circumstances, but also to continuously improving the transport system. The Commission's "Green Paper" on transport requests "a growing effort with a view to more efficient use of infrastructures". However, it also goes one further to proclaim the failure of its previous policy of promoting a European high speed rail network (RTE-T) and declare (in the light of the new situation) that "the political focus should firstly be widely reviewed."
Roberto Bermejo
